Japan has joined the EU in an effort force Apple to open up to sideloading on its iOS platforms; Japan’s government has drawn up a series of regulations that will require both Google Android and Apple’s own platforms to permit app downloading from outside the App Stores.

The government seems to believe doing so will spur competition and lead to lower app prices. Critics argue these steps may also spur crime and lead to higher device prices. We’ll see which side turns out right.

A Japan Times report claims the new regulations also require that independent app stores provide “enough” privacy and security protections. They also demand that users be allowed to pay through third-party payment providers.

Perhaps a little more concerning is that the government wants the platform vendors to allow users to delete preinstalled apps and not to give preferential treatment to their own services. Apple is already under similar pressure in the EU, where the Digital Markets Act became law in November. The act makes it mandatory for Apple to permit app sideloading beginning in March 2024.

Similar regulations are expected globally.

The new Japanese regulations don’t take effect until 2024.

In the face of such pressure, Apple may well be developing a system to permit app sideloading. We had expected the company to discuss this at WWDC 2023, but it did not. Instead, Apple’s Craig Federighi, vice president of software engineering, said during an interview that Apple is “working with the EU” on “what safe compliance would look like,” whatever that may mean.

This strongly suggests previous speculation that Apple is developing some form of safe app sideloading system is correct. It also hints that the company continues to negotiate its approach to this.

Central to this negotiation will be the security and privacy of its users, and the desire to ensure those of its users who want to protect those values are empowered to make the free choice to do so, even if that means they don’t choose to purchase apps from sources external to Apple’s stores.

The experience matters. Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring believes most Apple customers prefer the curated App Store model. “Apple’s customers have long prioritized the security, centralization, and convenience that the App Store brings,” he argued. "From the consumer perspective, we see very little demand for alternatives to the App Store given the unmatched security, ease of use (centralization), and reliability the App Store provides.”

The analyst also points to the limited success of sideloading when made available on other platforms. Crucially, he observes that the cost of maintaining privacy and security along with the management of app sales on third-party platforms will make running such stores uninteresting to most smaller businesses.

Increased complexity in app sales won’t really benefit consumers. The cost of running these stores suggests that the only beneficiaries will be larger companies seeking out bigger profits from app sales, firms seeking to profit from user information, and criminals running malware sites.

That means that rather than stimulating constructive competition, these regulations will instead generate a series of balkanized fiefdoms with differing levels of consumer protection. That market confusion seems very likely to drive most consumers straight back inside Apple’s walled garden. Even if a few apps no longer exist there.

I also think Apple should clarify what its plans around sideloading will be. Whatever it says, I’m pretty certain its critics will continue to complain, as it was never about “consumer freedom” or “competition” in the first place. It was just about money.

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