Oscars 2019: Best picture predictions
The beautiful Roma is the frontrunner for the Oscar best picture.
If Bohemian Rhapsody can win best drama at the Golden Globes, who knows what will happen at the Oscars.
Oscars 2019 starts giving out gold statues of men on Sunday, Feb. 24 at 5 p.m. PT. Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star is Born and Vice are all up for best picture.
With their 10 nominations each, the frontrunners are looking like Roma and The Favourite but if the Academy decides to make a surprise selection (Moonlight had the most dramatic surprise win) Bohemian Rhapsody and the rest might be in with a chance.
Here are the films we think will most likely win best picture.
Based off its recent BAFTA wins in both the best picture and best director categories, Alfonso Cuaron's Roma is the safe bet. Also, it's in black-and-white: The Academy loves its auteurs and their serious arthouse, with voters having tipped their fedoras to recent winners Moonlight and Birdman.
It helps that Roma is The Sound of Music-level moving storytelling, following Cleo, a cleaner and carer for a middle class family in 1970s Mexico. The moving painting of a film weaves in autobiographical elements from Cuaron's childhood during a time of political unrest. This, a child who grew up to be an Oscar winner (for Gravity) and the director behind the best Harry Potter film of the lot. A best picture win would be some celebration of the treasured filmmaker.
Viggo Mortensen (left) and Mahershala Ali in Green Book.
What would hold Roma back and what elevates Green Book, is the general rule of thumb that films with a best film editing nod have a shot at best picture (Birdman is one of the exceptions to this rule). Roma does not have a nomination in the category, but Green Book, The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice do.
Also propelling Green Book is its people's choice award win at the Toronto International Film Festival. The film made audiences feel good with its true story of odd couple African-American pianist Don Shirley and his Italian-American driver Tony Vallelonga (the real Nick Vallelonga co-wrote the script) who toured the Deep South in racially-tense areas during the '60s. They also ate Kentucky Fried Chicken and tried to make it home for Christmas. You can't get more wholesome than that.
However, the film's good will, including a Golden Globe for best picture -- musical or comedy, has been marred by arguments it's just another white saviour film ala The Blind Side. Then there's Viggo Mortensen's n-word interview, Vallelonga's Islamophobic tweet controversy and a resurfaced article from the '90s about director Peter Farrelly having a way with flashing people. Not to mention Farrelly (whose other credits include There's Something About Mary and Shallow Hal) being snubbed in the best director category.
Rachel Weisz (left) and Emma Stone in The Favourite.
The Favourite comes off a win at the BAFTAs for best British film and just pips Roma in acting nominations: It has three, one for best actress for Olivia Colman and two in best supporting actress for Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz (who just can't stop facing off with one another).
The period drama that takes Marie Antoinette to all new levels was a favourite to win the best picture at the BAFTAs. It follows two cousins vying to be Queen Anne's favourite plaything and lover. The Lobster director Yorgos Lanthimos crossed all the boundaries by bringing a highly original take to an 18th century setting.
Yet surprisingly the British-produced The Favourite lost out to Roma for the BAFTA for best picture. Luckily for The Favourite, the BAFTAs don't seem to hold much sway in Oscars predictions -- last year the BAFTA best picture went to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri instead of eventual Oscar winner The Shape of Water. The two academies haven't agreed for the three previous years, either.
Adam Driver (left) and John David Washington in BlacKkKlansman.
Director Spike Lee has a history of being snubbed by the Oscars, and if the controversy surrounding Green Book catches up to it, Lee might be in with a chance for BlacKkKlansman.
The '70s-set story, also based on true events, follows Ron Stallworth, the first African-American police officer in Colorado Springs' police department, who pretends to be white while speaking to Grand Wizard David Duke of the Ku Klux Klan over the phone. He then sends Jewish colleague Flip Zimmerman in his place to go meet Klan members, leading to some tense and absurd interactions.
If the Oscars does another Driving Miss Daisy, it'll pick feel-good odd couple dramedy over Lee's politically-charged film. While Bruce Beresford's film won best picture, Lee's controversial 1989 film Do the Right Thing about racial tension in Brooklyn missed out on best film and best director Oscar nominations, despite its influence and critical acclaim.
Even if BlacKkKlansman isn't the wild card that takes the best picture gong, it's at least earned Lee his first Oscars best director nod. Long time coming.
The Marvel hit has a tough battle at the Oscars with the Academy's aversion to superhero films. That being said, Gravity and The Shape of Water were winners, and like Green Book and BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther tackles current issues such as race and prejudice.
The Lady Gaga-starring film lacks in the best director and best editing categories (though it should win best original song for Shallow).
The satire has been divisive among critics, despite earning the most Golden Globe nominations of any film.
Aside from criticism of its treatment of both Freddie Mercury's race and sexuality, Bohemian Rhapsody saw its director Bryan Singer fired for clashes with lead Rami Malek and showing up late to set. He's also subject to multiple sexual assault allegations, which saw his name removed from Bohemian Rhapsody's best British film BAFTA nomination.
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